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25·CLong
m
meme9/3meme
reply If you’re going to use the CSCO analog, I’d start the clock at the Netscape IPO in Aug 1995. That was the “killer app” moment, same as ChatGPT.
Cisco ran for another 4½ years.
And if you insist on starting at the 2000 peak, remember what happened next: Cisco had a few months of backlog that customers could cancel without penalty. Then the over-levered telcos blew up, WorldCom and Global Crossing went bankrupt, orders disappeared and Cisco ate a huge inventory charge.
Today the hyperscalers have $2.3T+ of cloud RPO stretching years, not quarters, across a much broader customer base, with some of the strongest balance sheets in the world funding the buildout.
And Cisco ultimately sold boxes that commoditized. While NVIDIA has CUDA + accelerators + networking + systems integration, which seems to me a lot closer to the kind of lock-in Apple kept.
65·B+Long
n
news9/3news
If you’re going to use the CSCO analog, I’d start the clock at the Netscape IPO in Aug 1995. That was the “killer app” moment, same as ChatGPT.
Cisco ran for another 4½ years.
And if you insist on starting at the 2000 peak, remember what happened next: Cisco had a few months of backlog that customers could cancel without penalty. Then the over-levered telcos blew up, WorldCom and Global Crossing went bankrupt, orders disappeared and Cisco ate a huge inventory charge.
Today the hyperscalers have $2.3T+ of cloud RPO stretching years, not quarters, across a much broader customer base, with some of the strongest balance sheets in the world funding the buildout.
And Cisco ultimately sold boxes that commoditized. While NVIDIA has CUDA + accelerators + networking + systems integration, which seems to me a lot closer to the kind of lock-in Apple kept.