Two items from “News Items” from @EllisItems this AM (https://substack.news-items.com):
“8. A rout in global chipmakers deepened on Tuesday, as fears over the durability of the AI boom intensified ahead of results from some of Silicon Valley’s biggest companies this week. South Korea’s Kospi led declines in Asia, falling more than 10 per cent and prompting a short halt in trading, after investors dumped shares in the country’s two leading memory-chip makers. Shares in SK Hynix fell as much as 10 per cent, while its larger rival, Samsung Electronics, dropped more than 12 per cent. The two companies have tumbled 41 per cent and 34 per cent, respectively, in July so far. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 fell 4.4 per cent, with memory-chip maker Kioxia plunging more than 18 per cent. This month’s sell-off has slashed Kioxia’s share price in half. (Source: http://ft.com)
9. A closely watched gauge of risk in holding the debt of companies at the centre of the AI boom is rising rapidly, underscoring growing jitters over Big Tech’s vast spending on data centres, chips and computer memory. Prices for credit default swaps, popular tools to bet against corporate debt, tied to Oracle, SpaceX, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom and Nvidia have risen to record highs in recent days, according to LSEG data. The sharp moves echo a sell-off in debt issued by so-called hyperscalers, which are piling hundreds of billions of dollars into developing vast data centres and sophisticated AI models. It comes as investors have grown increasingly worried about the deluge of debt sold by these companies. (Source: https://t.co/i1iKd1P8Ml)”
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Just some TLDR news:
- $CXMT IPO tomorrow if you like Chinese memory.
- Samsung Electronics reportedly struggling to secure large FC-BGA substrates. Ibiden (4062) reportedly requested LTA guarantees, Samsung Electro-Mechanics sought prepayments.
- Samsung + $AVGO sign memory + foundry AI framework through 2030, expected to exceed $200b
- $SOI expects FY2027 silicon photonics revenue to double compared to the previous year, surpassing Morgan Stanley's 60% growth projection. Photonics thesis go brrr.
- SK Group + $NVDA sign $500B+ partnership to build out AI DCs and HBM4 memory.
- SKC Absolics glass core delay to 2027 from reports. Targeting final reliability testing EOY, mass production next year. So if you're curious, this does push back some ramps from $LPK and others (hence drop on ER).
- $QCOM price hikes by double digits for smartphone processors, due to upstream supplier hike pricing.
- $META expected to issue $12B in project-level/SPV financing for El Paso, Texas AI DC expansion
- Naver announced a $10 billion investment from $NVDA and Brookfield to construct a 1GW-scale AI Factory. Near term plan is 200MW by 2028. (Nvidia $1B investment, Brookfield nonbinding $9B)
- 64GB DDR5 server modules rises 146% versus end-June contract pricing
- $INTC brought forward 14A process mass production by a year, risk production H2 2027 and volume production in 2028, vs. 2029 HVM expectations.
- Samsung Electro-Mechanics wins $200m MLCC order (existing bottleneck).
- $AMD (the Bandana bottleneck), announces Helios is in full production with shipments Q3 2026. Including an up to 2GW MI455X GPU deployment with Anthropic and a 6GW infrastructure rollout with OpenAI. Gave new >50% CAGR TAM to $220B by 2030 from $26b in 2025 for CPU market.
Rolls out optical interconnects for Mi500 in 2027. From channel checks, AMD is heading down to the CPO route (seems likely to use Ayar).
- $ORCL wins $7B Department of War enterprise software contract
- JX metal doubles semi target capacity at its KR subsidary with a 4B yen investment, with operations to begin H2 2027, amid surging demand from major customers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix
- Tungsten hexafluoride spot prices surged 2.1-2.5x Y/Y following Japan's Kanto Denka and Chuo Gas announcing permanent production halts. Fluorinated liquid supply faces a vacuum as 3M plans to exit PFAS production.
- From the four optical chipmaker earnings, Yuanjie/Eoptolink/TFC Optical/Dongshan Precision: no major order cuts, 1.6T shipments expected to accelerate into 2027. Optical chip suppliers expected to capture outsized margins from shortages.
- Unitree Robotics Targets 30,000 Humanoid Robot Production Capacity by 2026. Read through on humanoid TAM scaling like $CCXI and others.
- Energy storage lithium batteries orders increase first half orders by 2,900% apparently in China. Not as familiar with EVE Energy and other battery makers.
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Nvidia just locked down deal that changes AI race. Nvidia locked down a $500 billion AI memory deal with SK Hynix as Samsung and Broadcom signed a $200 billion pact, reshaping the global AI chip supply chain.
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quote: BREAKING: X-ray of a Lego fireman by STEEL revealed an internal defect, a subsurface overfill excursion localized to the rear end. This excursion raises serious questions about migrating flagship processes away from TSMC, whose process control has never let a chip go out the door with a suspiciously plump behind. Broadcom remains optimistic, noting the defect "gives it character." We have flagged it for failure analysis. The Millennium Falcon teardown is ongoing, but is still 7 pieces short. | BREAKING: Broadcom is diversifying away from long-time foundry partner TSMC. Lego will be the new manufacturing partner for Broadcom's flagship hyperscaler ASIC products in 2028. Broadcom President of Semiconductor Solutions, Charlie Kawwas, has already showed off package samples at RAISE Summit in Paris last week. With TSMC supply constrained, customers are alternative sources of chip supply from unexpected places. One of the major differentiators Lego brings is industry leading defect repair, "plug and play" chiplet interoperability, as well as built in self-alignment technology for 3D stacking. Mattel and Hasbro were also under consideration, but Lego's proven track record won out in the end. We have ordered multiple Millennium Falcon Sets set to our Portland teardown lab for competitive teardown analysis.